I’m often asked to make predictions, mostly about the direction of the world’s stock markets. Sometimes I’ve been asked about interest rates and a few times about inflation, but mainly about the stock markets, whether now is a good time to invest and if not, when.

I don’t do predictions.

The main reason being I can’t predict the future.

I am perfectly happy to say I have don’t know where the stock market will be in 6 months, 12 months or any other time. All I can say is it might be higher. Then again it might be lower.

Preparation is different though. We help clients invest so they benefit from rising markets and protected from falling markets. Some clients will benefit from rising inflation, others will suffer. Which are you? Similarly with interest rates, we help highly leveraged clients prepare for rising interest rates and to benefit from falling interest rates. If you have a highly leveraged property portfolio, how much of a risk is that to you? Are you comfortable with that? What if Bank of England base rate increases to 3%?

Preparation comes in various forms for us.

• Are your Wills and Power of Attorney valid and up to date?
• If you run a business, is your shareholder agreement up to date?
• What if you had died yesterday? What if you became critically ill yesterday?
• Are you and your business partners lives insured sufficiently?
• Do you have sufficient cash to hand in case of emergency?

The world’s stock markets might crash next week. They might not. But they have always crashed every now and again in the past and I doubt that will change. So when…? How long have you got? What financial risks would keep you awake at night? How can we best manage and avoid that?

Sometimes this entirely depend on your unique circumstances. Brexit could be a complete disaster, say if your portfolio is too exposed to, you work for or own a business adversely affected. It might work out brilliantly, say if you find a gap in a market you know a lot about. One person’s gain is often another’s loss.

At Chatfield, we don’t do prediction. We do preparation.